Yen on defensive on U.S. fiscal worry, helps Nikkei

TOKYO (Reuters) - Uncertainty over whether U.S. lawmakers will strike a deal by an end-of-year deadline to avert a severe fiscal retrenchment undermined the yen and bolstered Japanese shares on Tuesday in low volume, with many participants away on Christmas holiday.

The dollar rose to a 20-month high of 84.965 yen early on Tuesday in Asia, as Japanese markets caught up with global investors who had reacted overnight to incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's weekend comments that raised the pressure on the Bank of Japan.

During a meeting on Tuesday with officials from Japan's major business lobby, Keidanren, Abe reiterated calls on the BOJ to conduct bold monetary easing to beat deflation by setting an inflation target of 2 percent.

The head of Abe's coalition partner said on Tuesday the coalition party and Abe had agreed to set a 2 percent inflation target and compile a large stimulus budget to help the economy return to growth and overcome deflation.

The yen has come under pressure as a result of expectations that the BOJ will be compelled to adopt more drastic monetary stimulus measures next year.

The dollar was expected to stay firm this week as investors repatriate dollars, and as the U.S. fiscal impasse is likely to continue to sap investor appetite for risky assets and raise the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

"The dollar is seen relatively well bid, with all focus on the fiscal cliff," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

"Negotiations may be carried over the weekend, but markets still expect a deal to be struck by December 31. It is unthinkable that the U.S. will risk driving its economic growth sharply lower by not agreeing to avoid it."

U.S. lawmakers and President Barack Obama were on Christmas holiday and talks were unlikely to resume until later in the week.

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan at the end of last week, raising fears that the United States may face the "fiscal cliff" of some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start on January 1.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> resumed trading after a three-day weekend with a 1.1 percent gain, recapturing the key 10,000 mark it ceded on Friday after Boehner's failure sparked a broad market sell-off and the Tokyo benchmark closed down 1 percent. The Nikkei was likely to be supported as long as the yen stayed weak. <.t/>

"Ongoing optimism about the weak yen is lifting hopes that exporters' earnings will be better than expected," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Analysts say a near-term correction may be possible as the index is now in "overbought" territory after gaining 16.2 percent over the last six weeks, hitting a nine-month high last Friday. Its 14-day relative strength index was at 72.34, above the 70 level that signals an overbought condition.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> nudged up 0.1 percent, driven higher by surging Shanghai shares, as most Asian bourses were shut for Christmas.

The Shanghai Composite Index <.ssec> soared over 2 percent to five-month highs as investors bought property stocks on mounting optimism about the sector. Taiwan shares <.twii> jumped 1.3 percent on gains in technology and financial shares.

Asset performance in 2012: http://link.reuters.com/muc46s

2012 commodities returns: http://link.reuters.com/faz36s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

U.S. HOLDS 2013 KEY

Goro Ohwada, president and CEO at Japan-based fund of hedge funds Aino Investment Corp, said investors were likely to focus on economic fundamentals and the United States for cues on investment direction in 2013.

"There is a feeling that an investment strategy based on economic fundamentals may finally work next year, with asset prices more closely reflecting fair value. The problem is, we don't know yet which asset is a better bet than others," Ohwada said, adding that oil and gold appeared to be near their highs.

Naohiro Niimura, a partner at research and consulting firm Market Risk Advisory, said commodities and energy prices will likely move in tight ranges in 2013, with investors eyeing political events, including the U.S. fiscal cliff outlook, Italian parliamentary election set for February 24-25, and Germany's elections in September.

"The macroeconomic policies taken this year around the world to support growth are expected to result in a moderate recovery in 2013 to reduce an excessive downside risk to prices. This will likely keep commodities, gold and energy prices near their highs," Niimura said.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo; Editing by Edmund Klamann and Daniel Magnowski)

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U.S. Civilian Is Killed at Police Headquarters in Kabul

KABUL, Afghanistan — A female police sergeant shot and killed an American civilian adviser at police headquarters in Kabul on Monday, Afghan police officials said, breaking a relative lull in the so-called insider killings that have strained the relationship between Americans and Afghans here.

The American victim was identified as Joseph Griffin, 49, of Mansfield, Ga., who had worked for DynCorp International as a police trainer since July 2011, according to a DynCorp spokeswoman, Ashley Burke.

Afghan officials identified the suspect as a woman named Nargis, a 33-year-old sergeant in the national police force who worked in the Interior Ministry’s legal and gender equality department, and whose husband is also a member of the police force.

A person at Kabul police headquarters, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release information, said the attacker had shot the American adviser in the head at close range with a pistol and then was immediately arrested by other Afghan police officers. The person added that both American and Afghan officials were questioning her, and he said she was distraught. The police said they did not believe the attack was related to terrorism and that the suspect had no known connections with insurgents.

The Afghan news station TOLO cited Afghan officials as saying that the woman, who had crossed multiple police checkpoints before she fired her gun, had graduated from the national police academy in 2008, in one of its first female classes.

The effort to recruit and train female police officers has been fraught with difficulty. Eupol, the European police organization active in police training here, says there are only 380 female police officers in Kabul, and even fewer in the provinces, despite a goal by the Interior Ministry of recruiting 5,000 by the end of 2014.

Insider attacks, in which members of the Afghan security services have turned against their foreign allies, have greatly increased in the past year, with 61 American and other coalition members killed, not including the episode on Monday, compared with 35 deaths the previous year, according to NATO figures.

Monday’s attack — the first insider attack known to be committed by a woman — came after a lull in insider shootings after the military instituted a series of precautions meant to reduce them. The most recent episode was on Nov. 11, when a British soldier was killed in Helmand Province.

American and Afghan officials have been struggling to figure out how large a factor Taliban infiltration or coercion has been in such attacks. Although insurgent contact has been clear in some cases, many of the attacks have seemed to come out of personal animosity or outrage, attributed to culture clash or growing Afghan anger at what they see as an unwelcome occupation by the United States and its allies.

“The loss of any team member is tragic, but to have this happen over the holidays makes it seem all the more unfair,” Steven F. Gaffney, the chairman of DynCorp, said in a statement.

The company also released a statement attributed to the victim’s wife, Rennae Griffin. “My husband was a thoughtful, kind, generous and loving man who was selfless in all his actions and deeds,” it said.

In other violence on Monday, a coalition member was killed in an insurgent attack in eastern Afghanistan, and an Afghan Local Police commander killed five fellow officers at a checkpoint in Jowzjan Province in the north. Dur Mohammad, the commander at the checkpoint, shot and killed five officers under his command, according to Gen. Abdul Aziz Ghairat, the provincial police chief. He said the commander fled after the shooting. General Ghairat did not offer a motive, but said that Mr. Mohammad had connections with the Taliban in the area.

The Afghan Local Police program, which seeks to bring armed elements — including some former insurgents — into government service, has drawn criticism because of a series of episodes in which the armed elements have switched allegiances, sometimes repeatedly.

Read More..

Fifth-gen iPad reportedly due in March along with Retina iPad mini

Rumors that a second-generation iPad mini with a Retina display is set to launch ahead of Apple’s typical annual schedule next year have been swirling, and now it appears Apple’s (AAPL) full-size iPad may be sticking to its new semiannual release schedule. According to a report from Japanese blog Makotakra that cites an anonymous “inside source,” Apple plans to launch a new thinner, lighter 9.7-inch iPad as soon as March 2013. The fourth iPad model was just released last month alongside the iPad mini, but March was also suggested in recent Retina iPad mini rumors. Makotakra states that the new iPad will adopt styling queues from the current iPad mini model, unifying the look of Apple’s larger tablet with the iPad mini and iPhone 5.

[More from BGR: First photos of BlackBerry 10 ‘N-Series’ QWERTY smartphone leak]

This article was originally published by BGR

Gadgets News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Queen Elizabeth Goes 3D for Her Holiday Message

By Simon Perry

12/24/2012 at 03:05 PM EST

Queen Elizabeth, in her 3D glasses

John Stillwell/AFP/Getty

Check out the new Queen of Cool – rockin' her shades.

As if her Diamond Jubilee, her Summer Olympics' James Bond stunt and the anticipation of her great-grandchild from William and Kate weren't enough, Queen Elizabeth has capped this very special year by donning some funky glasses to view a new 3D version of her annual seasonal broadcast – the first time her traditional speech has been filmed in the format.

Complete with a blinged-out "Q" in Swarovski crystals decorating the temples of the frames, the specs – which she also once wore for a 3D movie in Canada a couple years ago – are an unlikely addition to the Queen's jewels.

"We wanted to do something a bit different and special in this Jubilee year, so doing it for the first time in 3D seemed a good thing, technology-wise, to do," a spokeswoman says.

The Queen's message will air at 3 p.m. U.K. time on Christmas Day. Looking back on the highlights of the year, she is expected to include her praise of the British Olympians and Paralympians who excelled at the London 2012 games.

Meanwhile, the 86-year-old monarch was absent from a pre-Christmas church service at Sandringham Sunday. It was said by Buckingham Palace that she is nursing a cold.

Read More..

Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

Read More..

Start of "Santa Claus rally" dampened by "cliff' worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged lower on Monday as caution over the potential for volatility driven by worries about the U.S. "fiscal cliff" dampened enthusiasm at the start of a seasonally strong period for equities.

Investors are betting Congress will reach a deal to avert most of the austerity measures due to come into force at the start of next year. That has led to the best year for stocks since the post-financial crisis rebound. But those gains may be quickly reversed if a deal is not reached soon.

The S&P 500 index posted its biggest drop in more than a month on Friday as a Republican plan to avoid the cliff - $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that could tip the U.S. economy into recession - failed to gain traction on Thursday night.

Sharp moves like that highlight how headlines from Washington can whipsaw markets, especially during the thinly traded period over the Christmas holiday.

Still, with the S&P 500 up 0.7 percent in December and on course for its strongest month since September, some analysts are predicting that stocks will find their footing during a market seasonality known as the "Santa Claus rally."

"Right now we've seen some very constructive action in the market so I think that bodes well for this being a positive seasonal 'Santa' period over the coming seven days," said Ari Wald, a technical analyst at The PrinceRidge Group.

He noted an all-time high in the NYSE advance-decline line, which compares advancing and declining stocks, as indication of strong participation in the rally off November lows.

"Pull-backs are buying opportunities," said Wald. "There has been really great participation on this move, a lot of small- and mid-cap stocks behaving well, pushing out to the upside; we're seeing some good leadership from offensive sectors of the market as well."

A high ratio of advancing stocks to declining issues shows there is broad participation across the equity market.

The Santa seasonality covers the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.8 percent during this period and risen 79 percent of the time, according to data from PrinceRidge.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 51.76 points, or 0.39 percent, to 13,139.08. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> fell 3.49 points, or 0.24 percent, to 1,426.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> lost 8.41 points, or 0.28 percent, to 3,012.60.

The S&P 500 is up more than 13 percent for the year, having recovered nearly all the losses suffered in the wake of the U.S. election. The yearly gain would be the best since 2009.

Some U.S. lawmakers expressed concern on Sunday the country would go over the cliff, as some Republicans charged that was President Barack Obama's goal. Talks are stalled with Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner out of Washington for the holidays.

"It does seem like we are continuing through the same drift of the same thing we've had the past couple of weeks - 'cliff' talk," said Nick Scheumann, wealth partner at Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Indiana.

"You can't trade on what you don't know and we truly don't know what they are going to do," he said.

Congress is expected to return to Washington next Thursday as President Barack Obama returns from a trip to Hawaii. As the deadline draws closer, a 'stop-gap' deal appears to be the most likely outcome of any talks.

Trading volume was muted, with U.S. equity markets closing at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) ahead of the Christmas Day holiday on Tuesday.

In addition, a number of European markets operated on a shortened session, with other markets closed.

U.S. retailers may not see a sales surge from this weekend as ho-hum discounts and fears about imminent tax hikes and cuts in government spending give Americans fewer reasons to open their wallets in the last few days before Christmas.

Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Juxtapid capsules in patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, but will conduct a post-approval study to test long-term safety and efficacy. Shares fell 1.8 percent to $25.25.

Herbalife Ltd dipped 4.4 percent to $26.06 after the company said it expects to exceed its previously announced repurchase authorization guidance and has retained Moelis & Company as its strategic adviser. The declines put the stock on track for a ninth straight decline.

Yum Brands Inc advanced 1.8 percent to $65.01 after Shanghai's food safety authority said the level of antibiotics and steroids in the company's KFC chicken was within official limits.

(Reporting By Edward Krudy; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Dan Grebler)

Read More..

Syrian Airstrikes Reportedly Kill Dozens at Bakery

BEIRUT, Lebanon — A Syrian warplane was reported to have conducted airstrikes that killed dozens of people lined up for bread at a bakery in the central town of Hilfaya, according to antigovernment activists in the area.

The attack, and its toll, could not immediately be confirmed. Samer, a local activist in the town, said he ran to the bakery soon after he heard a warplane, followed by bomb explosions and finally the sound of ambulances. “There were bodies everywhere,” he said, adding that he saw tens of bodies taken away in cars.

Photographs he said he took at the bakery showed bodies in a heap on a bloody sidewalk outside a low-slung building that was blackened with soot and stained with patches of blood, high on the walls. Amateur video showing what activists said was the aftermath of the attack showed roughly a dozen people lying on the ground, some wounded and several apparently dead.

In one of Samer’s photograph, a man stared in shock at the scene, with his hands resting on his head, while another carried body parts. Bystanders searched for survivors under rubble from the building. Another man picked up a piece of bread, lying next to someone’s slippers.

The reason for the attack was unclear, but activists said that rebel fighters occupied Hilfaya last week as part of a broader offensive to seize territory around the city of Hama, where the government has kept tight control after suppressing protests in the city last year.

Civilians have been caught between the two sides. On Friday, rebel fighters posted a video threatening to attack Christian villages with artillery while asserting that the residents were shielding government loyalists. In the last few days, Hilfaya has come under repeated shelling from loyalist positions in a neighboring village, activists said.

The bakery was one of three in the city. When word spread on Sunday that a flour shipment from Turkey had come in, people began lining up around noon, waiting for their turn at its windows for bread after a stretch of days when the bakeries had been idled. At least three bombs fell near the bakery, Samer and other activists said.

The attack came as the international envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, arrived in the capital, Damascus, where he was expected to meet with President Bashar al-Assad. His visit had been rumored but not previously announced, signaling concerns about security as the fighting between opposition fighters and the government intensified in the capital.

Mr. Brahimi made no public comment on Sunday, and the Syrian information minister said during a news conference that he had no knowledge of the envoy’s visit. Mr. Brahimi traveled by land from Beirut because of fighting between the rebels and government forces near the Damascus airport, Lebanese airport officials told The Associated Press.

His visit was likely to add fuel to the speculation about a deal to remove Mr. Assad from power. Rebel forces have claimed gains near government strongholds, and international aid agencies are warning of a growing humanitarian crisis in the winter months.

Russia, one of Syria’s most reliable allies, has recently sent signals that it is distancing itself from the Syrian president. On Saturday, the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said several countries in the region had offered Mr. Assad asylum, while adding that Moscow was not willing to mediate on their behalf.

Ellen Barry contributed reporting from Moscow; Hala Droubi from Jidda, Saudi Arabia; and Hwaida Saad from Beirut.

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Top Comments: Mashable Readers React to Instagram’s Terms of Service

Monday, Dec. 17: Instagram Updates TOS

Readers had varying reactions to Instagram‘s updates. Some felt that they were fair: If you don’t like the terms of service, argued some users, you have the option not to use the service. Others were far more outraged.

Click here to view this gallery.

[More from Mashable: Why xkcd Is Wrong About Instagram]

This week, the top comments on Mashable brought into focus both the state of the world around us and the constantly changing nature of our virtual lives. Our readers launched into debate when Instagram appeared to be making drastic changes to its privacy policy. Based on the wording of Instagram’s new Terms of Service, photographers worried that they may no longer own the rights to their own work, and that their photos could be used in advertising. As Mashable‘s Chris Taylor put it, the TOS as they stood early this week basically “signed your life away.”

Over the course of the week, we saw new privacy settings for Instagram users revealed, officially commented upon (while remaining unchanged) and then finally rescinded and apologized for.

[More from Mashable: Instagram Updates Its Terms of Service Based on User Feedback]

The Instagram controversy proved that users are, in fact, paying attention to the often glossed-over Terms of Service established by their favorite apps, and that a company’s response to public outcry has the potential to make or break their service.

Mashable‘s senior tech analyst, Christina Warren, compared Instagram’s actions to Netflix’s in the summer of 2011. Outraged users proved they weren’t bluffing about abandoning Instagram: Celebrities and power users threatened to quit the network, and downloads of rival apps such as Flickr and Aviary soared in the days surrounding the controversy. What was your take on this week’s events, involving photo-sharing and users’ right to ownership?

Even more commented upon, though less debated, were two Mashable stories that examined social media backlash in the wake of a tragedy. In the days following the horrific shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown, Connecticut, we found ourselves contemplating, both online and off, the horrific nature of the event. Unsurprisingly, the two most-commented-upon stories this week both centered on Sandy Hook’s impact on the social web. Our commenters sounded off on the offensive tweets sent during Obama’s Newtown speech, as well as on the viral post, “I Am Adam Lanza’s Mother.”

Other stories our commenters flocked to this week included a viral video of a golden eagle snatching a baby (later proved to be a hoax), the hacking of the Westboro Baptist Church by hacktivist group Anonymous and the appalling revelation that Facebook’s interns make more money than all of us. We also prepared for the end of the world as brought forth by the Mayan Apocalypse — which never did happen.

What were your favorite moments on Mashable this week? You can be part of the discussion by signing up with one of your social networks, and joining the conversation on our site. Next week, your voice could be featured in the Top Comments.

Happy holidays to our community!

Image courtesy of flickr, Marc Wathieu

This story originally published on Mashable here.

Tech News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Which Rising Star Did You Select as Best Dressed This Week?

Stylewatch
Style News Now

12/22/2012 at 12:00 PM ET

Marion Curtis/Startraks

With a hot new movie and an acclaimed Broadway show, Jessica Chastain has a lot to celebrate this season. And now she has another accolade: she’s this week’s best dressed star!

More than 16,000 of you gave Chastain’s simple, elegant ensemble — a peplum dress and Casadei sandals, worn to a Zero Dark Thirty screening in N.Y.C. — some love, propelling her into the top spot on our best dressed list. Chastain finished her look with natural makeup, minimal jewels and a flawless blowout.

PHOTOS: SEE THE TOP 10 BEST DRESSED STARS ON PEOPLE.COM THIS WEEK!

Coming in second was another fashion favorite, the Duchess of Cambridge, who wore a forest-green Alexander McQueen dress (with a sexy thigh-high split!) for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year Awards in London — her first public outing since her recent hospitalization.

Click here to find out who else ranked in the top 10 and vote for your favorite celeb looks. Tell us: Are you a fan of Chastain’s winning look? Who do you think deserved the title of best dressed star this week?

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

Read More..